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I think people underestimate lifetime earnings. Let's assume 35 years of salary work to retire at 65 (it takes a while to get a career going an maybe a layoff and parental leave...) That would be about 125k a year. Make that a dual income family and that's 2 people making 63k a year. It's a bit hard to understand pre and post tax though because some of the calculations like retirement are pretax. And then factor in gains from investment...
So isn't this calculation saying a 2 family income making median salaries can live the dream? That's not great for 50% of Americans and probably means a lesser proportion of Americans can attain the dream than before. But that number 4.4 million actually is not crazy high. In a more just work though, dual income families making above the lowest 25 to 30% salaries should be able to afford the American Dream with some caveats around used cars instead of new, and maybe more frugal wedding and college expense due to financial aid and what not.
Add the expense of having kids.
Add the expense of looking after parents.
Add the expense of healthcare costs.
I would guess all of these are included in the 4.4 million