Given that abortion and legal weed will both be on the ballot in Florida this cycle, turnout could a lot different this time around.
this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2024
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Honestly, maybe this is pure hubris here, but I think Biden is in for a big win in November. They have so much fucking money on hand they can blow it in Florida to troll Trump and Desantis. I think roughly 10-20% of the Republican party is, because of Jan 6, never Trump voters. We see Haley getting about that much support in these late primaries, even after she dropped out. We haven't had an election with Trump on the ballot since Jan 6 I think this is the sole reason he won't win. Moderates fucking hate him over Jan 6. So we have completely disengaged moderate conservatives, big donors are walking away because they don't want to pay Trumps legal bills. State GOPs are bankrupt. And to top it all off, Trump is going to be in court all summer over __________ crimes
Meanwhile Biden has strong issues to campaign on: Abortion and threats to American democracy. We still haven't managed to hit a recession yet, even tho its been predicted for the last 3 years. Things are improving, albeit slowly. Also what nobody in the mainstream is considering: Polling is completely broken. Pew research did a poll and found that 12% of respondents were capable of operating a Nuclear Sub (the reality is less than 1%). Online polls pay per poll, people are very clearly just answering question as quickly as possible to get the pay outs.
I wish I had this amount of confidence in my fellow man. I fear this election is going to be just as close as the last two and it will be a coin flip in the end.
maybe this is pure hubris here, but I think Biden is in for a big win in November
Yes, it IS pure hubris. He won most mutual states by a smaller margin than Hilary and he's currently behind in at least one of the swing states that cost her the election.
If he doesn't get his act together and stops turning droves away from voting at all, he's going to lose.
Just because I know some will trot out this strawman: no, I don't WANT him to lose. He's by far the lesser evil and if he loses to the mango Mussolini, there might not be another election.
Don't forget that the republican party has shrunk just in raw numbers. Covid deaths and people switching parties after jan 6 means even if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2024 it'd be a smaller number than if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2020.
The irony of killing off their own base by not taking covid seriously to own the libs.
If Democrats try just a little, I think you're right, and we could be seeing the complete collapse of the Republican party because of it. When special elections are flipping R+15 districts, and the reaction against the Dobbs decision has been so strong and sustained, then there's a message that will work in every district. Meanwhile, Republican fundraising has already dried up, and what funds they do have are going into Trump's mounting legal bills. The party has the wind knocked out of it, and if Dems would just fucking try rather than give them a moment to catch their breath, it would be a curbstomp.
But they need to fucking try.
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I honestly don’t think Florida’s a swing state anymore. Since desantis took office and designated it an anti-vax safe haven during covid, I think it swung much further right. This is probably a waste of resources.
You got a dip shit like DeSantis whose War On Woke cost Florida tax payers millions for nothing. And you also have dipshit pedo Matt Gaetz who is proud to pay for underage sex workers and still has a job.
Flipping will just unwind Florida's BS to circa 2015 and will take years of recovery before they can rebuild.
On the other hand, designating your state full of obese and old people as a COVID haven has one pretty serious drawback.
You are incorrect, FL is swinging further left exactly because of DeSantis and abortion and book bans and education and even Disney. Jacksonville demonstrated the Dems can win in what everyone mistakes for a red region.
Normally I would agree, but with the GOPs attacks on women’s rights and Florida taking it to an extreme, I do believe there is a path to victory there for Democrats.
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Terrible idea, focus literally anywhere Else
He has enough money to go full press practically everywhere. If Biden can force Trump to campaign in Florida, even if it stays red, it will keep Trump out of swing states.
Yeah. Sounds like this is going to become the Cold War of politics this season. Force the other side to spend themselves to death so they can't spend strategically.
Abortion and Recreational Marijuana are on the FL ballot as a result of petitions and signatures. The voters are still blue in a lot of areas; and there’s been a large rejection of the DeSantis maneuvering around Disney, and costing the state business.
A terrible idea would be not trying.
That’s what most people fail to realize about the us elections. Literally nothing matters but voter turnout. Every election with high turnout goes to democrats. You’re not going to convince any Trump supporters to suddenly vote Biden. It’s Biden vs voter apathy, not Biden vs trump. Republicans know this, that’s why they are always pushing the “both-sides” bs. Having abortion and pot on the ballot make Florida very winnable.
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I just wish they'd try and flush Turd Cruz out of Texas for control of the Senate.
He's a prime target after abandoning the State during Snowmageddon and blaming it on his daughters.
Also, I fuckin' hate that disgusting little troll.
Chavez Rodriguez outlined that abortion will be on the ballot in Florida, where the state Supreme Court issued a ruling that puts a six-week ban into effect May 1. Democrats see abortion as a winning issue for them in 2024 after experiencing better-than-expected results in the midterm elections months after Roe v. Wade was overturned.
That's basically a key point here. Abortion is banned in Florida, but a state constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion is on the ballot the same day as the presidential election.
That does change the electoral dynamic.
Ok, this actually makes sense now. Florida otherwise felt like a pretty rough target, but this could actually swing it and they need to campaign like hell on it.
This is why the Republicans have been focused on making Florida and Texas so toxic: there was a chance of turning them blue. By being all Handmaid's Tale, they've been trying to drive out anyone leaning blue and attract more MAGAts. Because there are just too many electoral votes in either state for the Republicans to be willing to lose them.
At this point, Florida and NC better be in play. I bet he'll put some money into TX too. Georgia wasn't a key state in the early stages of 2020 but it swung Biden's way.
You can't just "blue wall" yourself like Hillary and assume you have Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, you have to expand the possible opportunities for a winning map. In the later stages of the campaign they'll make the hard choices on where money and time will most effectively spent. For now, open the aperture as wide as plausible.
He's got a better chance of flipping Texas than Florida right now
Maybe, maybe not. DeSantis took 60% of the vote for Governor in 2022, but his approval has tanked since then and is now underwater. Democrats also flipped Florida House District 35 in a special election, which is rated an R+15 district (it votes 15 points more towards Republicans than the national average).
Combine that with empty coffers at the Republican party, and Trump taking over the party apparatus so it can fund his legal bills at the expense of all other races and even his own campaign. They're severely off balance, and Democrats can pull a Jiu Jitsu move here by trying just a little in every single contest that's even a bit contestable. Republicans won't have a fundraising answer to that. Doesn't mean Democrats will win every seat, but it could be quite the flood.
Shouldn't we assume his approval tanked because he dared challenge the Trumpanzees' cult leader?
I hope it is a flood though, that would be a welcome surprise.
Florida is rough. Dems here are awful and are never serious. They got caught dancing with the GOP on video. People were upset then they made a bunch of excuses. It will be hard to undo the cult worship Trumpism has in this state.
Yes, but with abortion on the ballot there - I'm sure that's why they are targeting it.
Like in Kansas 2022 - keeping abortion legal won by 19%. In Kansas!
Abortion being a ballot issue will certainly bring out the blue vote.
Missing from all this whoha is that there is also a measure to legalize recreational marijuana on the ballot. In any case, Biden has already won Florida twice with Obama.
Shouldn’t be hard, most people hate republicans who live in cities, it’s the vermin counties you might have trouble with. Basically Ocala and the other deep south racist/supremacist areas of the pan handle.
Just keep hammering them with quotes from Republicans, including Trump, about cutting Social Security, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act. Put it up on billboards and other signage in public spaces where social media algorithms can't hide it from potential voters.
I think you're underestimating how much MAGA Republicans are willing to bite their own noses off to spit at minorities.
They will, maybe reluctantly, give up social security, Medicare, any many of the social programs they benefit from if it allows them to hate Mexicans/Cubans/trans people more.
I can't argue about the MAGAts but every other old person in Florida needs to know that a vote for Trump is a vote to cut their own standard of living and life expectancy.
You're talking about people who will straight faced tell a news reporter that we need to end all the welfare in this country...then when the reporter says, "wait, but didn't you say you receive Medicaid and food stamps?" they'll say, "yeah but that's different. I need that. It's the welfare that we need to put an end to!"
Words matter. To these voters, "welfare" is for poors and people from other countries who are just leeching from the system.
"Food stamps" and "Medicare" are for upstanding rural citizens who are just a bit down on their luck.
...
For those not paying attention:
In 2020 Biden lost Florida by the largest margin in 20 years, despite polling 3 point ahead before the election.
Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won Florida by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016, over Hillary Clinton, by 1.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida
Right now trump is up 7 point...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
Florida is not where Biden needs to focus, it's all those states where just 30k votes got him the election.
Like, if we're really stuck with Biden, can his campaign at least act rationally this time?
The results in FL we’re likely fraudulent; but never investigated.
Well if they were fraudulent and nothings changed about who runs the state and the elections then it's even dumber to allocate resources there, since there's nothing in place to prevent another fraud.
If trump underperforms as much as Biden did, he'd still win by more than he did in 2020...
But assuming Florida was fraudulent in 2020, and nothing was done...
What's changed?
Note:
You got a source for republicans committing large scale fraud in Florida? All I'm seeing is a small amount of idiots that voted twice and obviously got caught...
Which isn't enough to make up for the ~370,000 votes Biden lost by.
What’s changed
A lot actually. 2020 and 2024 are not the same political climate. For starters, the 2020 election was pre-insurrection. Since then, Jacksonville voters elected a democrat as their mayor. Abortion and recreational marijuana are going to be on the ballot as a result of citizens organizing; not their elected officials representing them.
Some people in FL are starting to wake up. It wasn’t so long ago that FL voted blue in the Presidential elections.
Either way, Biden didn’t need FL to win in 2020; as he displayed in the previous election. This would explain why no money was spent on any large scale investigation into the fraud. The outcome would have remained the same.
I’m not going to link every unrelated article that comes back after a search for “2020 FL voter fraud.” There’s a ton of projection coming from Tallahassee though.
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You got some proof to back up that claim?
Proof that widescale fraud wasn't investigated in FL? That's like asking me for proof that my package didn't arrive at my doorstep.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she said.
She also outlined that the Biden campaign has been focused on Latino outreach, and Florida has a large Cuban, Venezuelan, and Puerto Rican population.
She called Florida “a state where President Biden has a compelling story of results, Trump and Rick Scott’s extreme agenda is making Floridians’ lives worse, and the Democratic coalition is growing and energized.”
Chavez Rodriguez outlined that abortion will be on the ballot in Florida, where the state Supreme Court issued a ruling that puts a six-week ban into effect May 1.
Democrats see abortion as a winning issue for them in 2024 after experiencing better-than-expected results in the midterm elections months after Roe v. Wade was overturned.
She also argued that Florida has rising housing costs and ranks 44th among states with health insurance access, citing The Commonwealth Fund.
The original article contains 388 words, the summary contains 164 words. Saved 58%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
I'm down to vote Biden in FL
Please don't bother. Target keeping the other fucking real swing states first and foremost
yeah I doubt that. FL hasn't been a swing state sine 2008
I thought I remembered that a major factor was the Cuban vote in Dade county that swung it for Trump in 2020, due to Trump going on and on about Biden being socialist/communist, and you know, their history...
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