this post was submitted on 06 Aug 2023
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Just a friendly FYI that the Almanacs have essentially no skill in seasonal forecasting and rely on vagaries and generalities to try and convince readers that the wide net the cast to try and capture chance is actually skill.
Even physical sciences based forecasts can struggle to hit 50-60% skill on seasonal forecasts. Even in the highlights posted here:
This "forecast" literally just describes essentially every winter in Canada. The fact this pseudoscience that is demonstrably unskilled gets so much visibility each year.
To further this point, here you can find the Env Canada long range probabilistic forecasts which are actually based on science and observations :q
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s456pfe1t_cal&bc=prob
More likely above average