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Guys (in the gender neutral sense), what's your gut feeling on who will win this time? (lemmy.nz)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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I don't know a single person voting Nats but my gut feeling is they will get it. And likely not by a huge margin, meaning Nat-Act govt likely.

ITT no discussing why X should or shouldn't be in, just your predictions.

Also, is it illegal to bet on elections?

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Probably National.

Bear in mind, the people most likely to tell someone their political leanings goes as follows

Top Green Labour ACT National

I'm not really sure where TPM and NZ first fit into this, but the left is extremely vocal, meaning they appear much more popular than they are.

With that in mind, National-Act, hopefully without the need to look to Winston for help.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Top Green Labour ACT Nationa

Interestingly, that hadn't been my experience at all. I've found the most vocal are those farthest from the centre, on either side of the spectrum. From my experience, I would put it as:

Green/Act, Top/NZF, Labour/Nats

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

You can't seriously think Act voters are less vocal than TOP. Bearing in mind, Act voters outnumber TOP ten to one, based on current polling.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

It's been my experience they are, yes. Bare in mind I'm not really counting online interactions, as that is pretty skewed.

In person I've experienced several rants on the usual rightwing talking points from people who have confirmed they are voting ACT, and a similar number of environmentalist rants from people who clearly are greenies. I've never met anyone in-person who has pushed a TOP talking point or claimed they are voting TOP, ditto NZF although I know people who lean one way or the other based on other conversations.

An additional point, the only people I've seen around on street corners with banners, or walking the streets drumming up support, are Freedum party loonies, Act, Nat and Labour (in that order). I find this interesting, but not really scientific lol.