this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2023
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Having an invite only service seems like a risky move. If you make the sign up process too difficult people will give up and never return.
At this stage that's kind of the point. It's an intentional demand-curbing measure. The number of people trying to switch to BlueSky outstrips hosting infrastructure. They're scaling up slowly and carefully.
I presume once it's out of open beta and they have the infra they need to launch properly, it will stop being invite ony.
Understandable, but at that point it may be too late as people will have cemented themselves with some of the competition such as Mastodon or wherever it may be. At least for me I am very unlikely to use BlueSky at this point or in the future because I was unable to go to the site when I had heard of it and sign up.
I think those of us that treat social media services this way are a minority in the grand picture. If BlueSky continues to be effective, network effect will pull in a steady stream of users, including ones that may have balked before.
It is poising itself to be a 1:1 drop-in replacement for Twitter. Federated services like Mastodon aren't that (and aren't trying to be).
I wholly believe that the majority of Twitter users have no interest in federated platforms as alternatives. By comparison, platforms like Mastodon feel vaguely like Twitter but more fractured and isolated. Everyone was on Twitter. Comparatively no one is on Mastodon. Discovery is awful and micromanaging instances and subscriptions is tedious busywork. "Why can't it just be all in one convenient place, like on Twitter? This is so stupid and complicated," I expect most would complain.
Federated platforms are loved by us because we value the fine control and we like putting in effort to curate our feeds. The complexity is the appeal. But I think it's negative appeal to the type of person who has gotten accustomed to an algorithm doing all of that for them, and I think that's most people. You can use federated platforms out of the box and they'll "just work" without all the tinkering, but it will be very bland and vapid. It only becomes great when you put in work to make it great for yourself.
The thing BlueSky seems to be promising is that big, monolithic platform that Twitter was and most people want. And I think they're the only notable player in that game, so they'll completely corner that market. As long as they don't trip over any footguns (and I don't believe making the beta invite-only is one of them), I believe they're going to succeed greatly.
But the sign up codes are the only reason people care about it. Yes, people are just THAT shallow.
Facebook started as an invite only service.
So did Gmail, but it was a different time without any good competition.
Centralized serives tend to have server issues once they get more popular so it's not really a surprise the new Twitter shithole did so too!