this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2023
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If I had a rocket that could kill a thousand people in a single strike, I would use it on an actual military target. Maybe that's just me though.
If there were munitions or explosives stored at the hospital, it could cause that.
I'm not saying the IAF didn't do this, but that rocket artillery does fail, and Hamas does use a lot of different soft targets to store supplies. So it's possible that a failed rocket detonated a munition stockpile.
It's also possible that this was an IAF strike, either out of pure genocidal intent, or a targeting munition depot.*
Or... Or...
We just have to wait and see for further evidence and information for proper attribution.
Regardless, a lot of innocent people just died, and a lot more are going to.
*Even if it was used to store munitions, I don't believe that would morally justify an IAF strike, even if would make it "legitimate" (legal) military target.
Videos show no indication of a secondary detonation of that size (or at all). It's a single large primary strike. Moreover, Hamas does not have the capability to launch a rocket with this explosive capacity. Hamas' best rocket is the Ayyash 250, which wouldn't even come close to this much damage. The amount of damage in this strike is much more in line with an American ATACMS or a Russian Iskander (and, in fact, seems larger) and Hamas is decades from developing that capability. It's far more likely to be a large guided munition like a JDAM.
The Russia-Ukraine war has shown has plenty of examples of what happens when you strike an ammo depot. You're free to compare for yourself.
You just cited three "comparable" munitions whose payloads and characteristics are widely different. Two of which are cruise missles, and conveniently, all in the news recently.
Your analysis is also based on questionable footage, which by the way, has sound (sound effects?) of artillery, or rocket artillery, not that of a cruise missile.
But sure, if that footage is authentic, that noise could be something like a JDAM, or another air dropped bomb, even if it does sound more like incoming rocket artillery IMO.
My point is just that it's irresponsible to ascribe definite attribution with the presently available information. That's it.
The sound of the munition used in the strike and the size of the explosion is in line with JDAMs used in prior conflicts, not that of a misfired missile: https://x.com/wyattreed13/status/1714338974544625692?s=20
Feel free to compare with the use of other JDAMs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_uwzugvv-g
Hamas simply doesn't have the ability to launch a warhead of the capacity being claimed.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=A_uwzugvv-g
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.
We can only hope the rocket wasn’t intended to hit a hospital, but it doesn’t get much better in any case.
https://www.episcopalnewsservice.org/2023/10/16/anglican-hospital-among-facilities-struggling-to-respond-to-growing-humanitarian-crisis-in-gaza/
This same exact hospital was bombed by the IDF a few days ago
Current news seems to show it as a failed rocket launched from within Gaza.
Edit: news coming in fast. Probably best to wait until tomorrow. Might be rockets from Gaza damaged / intercepted by Israeli defense.
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714390274900734049
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1714377828131553446
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1714378040115867883
The sound of the munition used in the strike and the size of the explosion is in line with JDAMs used in prior conflicts, not that of a misfired missile: https://x.com/wyattreed13/status/1714338974544625692?s=20
Feel free to compare with the use of other JDAMs: https://youtu.be/A_uwzugvv-g?si=E5Lt0f4BusS-ErXt
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=A_uwzugvv-g
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.
And then after you had everything planned out the rocket had a malfunction or you realized you made a stupid mistake and the rocket only managed to to fly 2km in the wrong direction
https://www.episcopalnewsservice.org/2023/10/16/anglican-hospital-among-facilities-struggling-to-respond-to-growing-humanitarian-crisis-in-gaza/
This same exact hospital has been bombed by the IDF in the past. Occam's razor exists for a reason.
I'm only saying that also if you have something else planned and have a better target in your mind things can go wrong. Also if the same hospitals was hit in the past, it does not mean that it was the same actor. It will become more clear in the following days what happened, nobody knows much so far. There is a lot of speculations and false information around.
There are videos of the strike that clearly match the sound profiles and explosion profiles of previous guided bombs. There is no indication of secondary detonation at the site.
Hamas simply does not have the capability of launching a rocket of this size (this would be equivalent to an American ATACMS or a Russian Iskander. Hamas simply does not have this capability).