this post was submitted on 10 Nov 2023
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Highlights: Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans worked for more than a year to make Joe Manchin’s retirement announcement on Thursday a reality. And for good reason: The Democrat’s decision puts Republicans on the precipice of a majority that’s eluded them for two straight election cycles.

McConnell himself laid the groundwork last fall when he flew out to see the popular Gov. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), the GOP leader said in an interview. McConnell said Justice initially seemed like he had never considered it, but a few months later, Justice launched his bid.

“You can do the math. If we don’t lose any incumbent — and I don’t think we will — he’s No. 50. And one step closer to having a majority,” McConnell said of Justice. “I’ve been involved in a lot of recruiting over the years, some successfully, some not. But I think that’s the best recruiting job I ever did.”

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

This isn't true at all.

  • The house is almost statistically guaranteed to flip back to Dems due to the legal rulings on redistricting in multiple states.

  • I think people are vastly overestimating Donald Trump's chances at taking the Whitehouse off this one nebulous poll of dubious accuracy more than a year out from the election. This isn't even taking into account the fact that he is about to get fisted in Federal Court.

  • The Supreme Court Justices that Donald Trump got sworn in have repeatedly refused to hear issues he has tried to bring to the court or straight up ruled against him. They still suck ass though, don't get me wrong.

  • The one area that is going to be rough is the Senate

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

All rulings will be delayed as much as he can and appealed if it isn't what he likes.

He's going to stretch this as far as time, the legal system, and his finances allow.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

All rulings will be delayed as much as he can and appealed if it isn't what he likes.

This might fly in civil court, which it has for him in the past. But even there we are starting to see less and less tolerance for delay with the on-going fraud trial.

However, this is not the case in criminal court, especially in the Federal system. I don't think people truly understand the magnitude of these Federal criminal cases. They are unquestionably the single most important criminal proceedings in modern American history, and the court will not allow its power to be minimized or manipulated.

This is so much bigger than Donald Trump. It is about the court demonstrating and further legitimizing the public perception that the power of the US criminal justice system cannot be usurped or avoided by anyone. I keep saying it, but I will say it again. When you fuck with the integrity of the system, the system will fuck you back.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

I get that, but I think he's counting on Former President status and either:

  • Winning in the general
  • Taking any and everything to Scotus through manipulations. Note: Scotus may not be invested in delegitimizing themselves in obvious ways but... Gore v Bush, "loans," etc. They are delegitimized.

Whether this will work will depend on if he can leapfrog and at least catch a "Canon" at some point in each line and to keep his appeals running.