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Jeffrey Katzenberg: AI Will Take 90% of Artist Jobs on Animated Films In Just Three Years
(www.indiewire.com)
this post was submitted on 11 Jan 2024
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Technology
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For companies that pump out crappy content maybe.
Yeah, but this is basically what the biggest studios will do, and they will be successful at it with certain audiences. It will become the Kraft cheese or Oscar Meyer hotdog of the movie industry: processed shit that is barely what it says it is on paper, but somehow highly consumable to millions.
Avant garde, indie, extreme low budget, etc will all find a surge, tho, since a lot of people will want "nicer", less processed movies.
This is all highly speculative, ofc.
Yea.
I think it's helpful to look out for the ways in which this sort of AI disruption won't actually be a disruption but instead a continuation of a trend and impetus that already exists.
Spitting out crappy cookie cutter films that are optimised to sell tickets as cheaply as possible without giving a fuck about the industry ... that's so much of Hollywood. Why wouldn't they give it a shot with AI. Same with the music industry.
Music has been predominantly bland for 20 years or more, in the mainstream channels. It's depressing.
And I want to say I just got older and so mainstream music isn't for me, but... it's bland. I'm not like older people aghast over Marilyn Manson. I'm older and fucking bored with how lame music is now.
That captures the difference so well.
It used to be that older people thought new music was evil or monstrous or too abrasive to count as music.
Now, they find it too boring to listen too.
If you didn’t see it, Beato did a nice video on how the music industry went to shit starting in the 90s once all the stations were monopolised leading to everything trying to appease only a few people’s tastes.
Oh yeah. I haven't seen that video and thanks for the recommendation, but I lived through Clear Channel and the rest scarfing up all my local radio stations and turning them to shit just as the internet was beginning to really catch on. They made it easy for the iPod revolution to happen, playing the same garbage on every station.
I feel the same way about modern music but I can’t tell if it’s the music or just me getting old.
Here's why I think it's not just us getting older: every generation in the past would look at new music and be freaked out and shocked... we're bored.
You seem shocked by how boring it is, old man.
Get off my lawn!
I know this chain specified mainstream channels at the start, but I notice these kind of sentiments about modern music in general and I can't help but disagree. There's lots of really interesting modern music out there if you're not just looking in wide appeal places. I also think it's weird to use shock as a metric. Any internet generation is going to have a much higher threshold for being shocked. And even then it still does happen to some extent think Lil Nas X's Montero or WAP.
Yeah, there is interesting music in certain areas, but not nearly as much as there used to be. I have to sift through a lot of nonsense to get to the good stuff.
I’m not sure this is true. IIRC the majority of frames in Across the Spider-Verse were AI generated, and that movie is hailed as the pinnacle of animation right now.
Maybe im weird then, because that pseudo stop motion looks like shit
A lot of work in animation is drudgery. Sure, this probably won't replace your writers, storyboard artists, model developers, background designers, etc. But VFX, in betweeners, post processing? Just look at the progress in the last year.
I've been using DALLE 3 for the last couple of months to do character Illustrations for my tabletop campaign. Sure, a lot of the results aren't great, but it takes me 10 minutes of fiddling with prompts and 5 minutes tops of post-processing to get really good results that would take a professional artist hours, if not days. I've seen some pretty impressive forays into animation as well on the research side of things.
3 years is a really long time in this field. I won't be surprised if all a studio needs at that point is a handful of artists to design models, backgrounds, and key frames to flesh out a script, then another handful to refine and polish.
Yes! AI subtools added to existing creative suites will be a huge part of the problem once they get good enough. What currently takes a varied team will be done by one artist, with AI filling in the gaps and adding the polish that the others would have covered.
For example, that recent AI art scandal with Magic the Gathering was apparently due to the artist using Photoshop's generative fill to speed up the process, which is why Wizards denied it was AI art at first.
I think big companies will have a mix of both.
I think a big job for the remaining artists will be to tweak or improve what the ai makes and then iterate on it.
Scripts? Yeah. I doubt AI is ever gonna crank out a good script.
Animation? Look where we are already with AI. You really think we are that far off from quality animation from prompts?
As if the Hallmark Channel ever needed more than one script
Scripts could happen, but you'd need a hell of a lot more training data than we have now though. There are like 700,000-800,000 movies and maybe a few thousand of those are reasonably popular. You could probably make something that reasonably graded scripts without someone having to read all of them.
Animation is getting damn close. AI can generate the set completely and with the latest changes in image stability you can puppet ai art with generic actors. We're still lacking style though. One of the strong pulls in animation are the particulars of a shows art style. You can see one frame of the simpsons, southpark, futurama or bobs burgers and know what you're watching. it's still a little early to ask AI to make a full cohesive piece frame to frame
Yeah, I really doubt the scripts are gonna happen. Well....quality scripts. 100% gonna have shitty ai sitcoms and movies. It's unavoidable.
But yeah....we aren't anywhere near there yet for animation but this shit is going SO FUCKING FAST. three years from now like the guy in the article said? I could easily see high quality animation being cranked out by AI in that time.
Crappy content still employs people.