I'm gonna go with "no" judging by how things have been going in the past. I hope to be proven wrong, but I'm not holding my breath.
this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2024
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My prediction - Trump will die of old age, never having seen jail, living a 1% lifestyle.
I would be happy enough if he gets sentenced to prison but is suddenly "too ill" or, you know, his bone spurs or whatever, and gets house arrest. Whatever as long as he doesn't rally or run for president anymore
While that would be better than my prediction, it would remain as proof there is a different justice system for the rich and powerful, IMO.
Yes, my bare minimum "want" in general is Trump no longer a force on US politics. But achieving that goal still falls far, far short of justice for his actions.
Totally agree.
The circular paradox is that if he (they) weren't "rich" (from an access to capital standpoint), they wouldn't have been able to commit such felonies, which they can defend and absorb...because they're "rich".
ad infinitum
Regardless of the sentence, it'll get stalled till after the election. So prison might actually be worse, as it'll get his voters out and then if he wins there's no way he'll go to prison or have any other trials.
But this makes him a felon, making jail on future convictions more likely under sentencing guidelines.
So the most likely way he ends up in prison, is if he loses the election and then gets convicted on any other of his many charges. Since then he'll already be a felon at sentencing.
He should go to jail just off this, and Im just not holding my breath. And I wouldn't be surprised if SC shenanigans come into play at some point. Or if he just keeps the appeal wheel spinning till he drops dead.
So prison might actually be worse, as it'll get his voters out and then if he wins there's no way he'll go to prison or have any other trials.
I said this a week ago, and got obliterated for it. I'm glad this concept seems to be resonating with other Lemmings now that some time has passed.
I completely agree with your other analysis as well. If the goal is for Trump to get what he deserves from the long dick of the law then the only way that happens is if he loses this election.
The last thing anybody who gives a fuck about the future of democracy in this country should want is to turn that cocksucker into a martyr five months out from the only personal referendum on his ideology that we are going to get.
I said this a week ago, and got obliterated for it
There is a very fine line on what gets up voted/down voted on here.
Most of my comments get a whole bunch of one or the other.
From what I've been able to tell, planning up to six months is fine, but anything more long-term than that gets down votes to oblivion.
There's some interesting psych stuff where stress (especially from resource scarcity) make people incapable of planning ahead for any significant amount of time. And I think that's coming into play a lot lately.
The prospect of a second trump term should be incredibly stressful for a rational American. The problem is that trump is far from the only serious problem facing America.
The problem is that trump is far from the only serious problem facing America.
No, he's not, but resolving him is critical path to resolving the rest of them. In this case, I don't think it's unreasonable to focus in on November and the few months following it.
Who do you think would have an easier time stopping Trump?
-
A Dem candidate whose values align with Dem voters and is not named trump.
-
A Dem candidate who is more conservative than Dem voters on major issues and is not named trump
Because, to me, it seems like option 1 will be more likely to get Dem voters to vote for them...
I don't know if this post was intended to be a reply to me or not, since I wasn't talking about Biden at all, but I'll have a go at it:
I think you're right, and that a Dem candidate who actually quacked like a duck consistently would perform better, but party leadership, rightly or wrongly, seems to be banking on keeping their current voters and trying to entice disaffected GOP voters (read: women), particularly in purple states, to either stay home (I hate both of them i'm not going) or vote Dem in a "at least he's not like Bernie, but maybe I can have healthcare again" sense. I live in Missouri, and my neighborhood had conservative grandmas out canvasing for ballot initiatives on the abortion issue for the first time since moving here, so I'll allow that they might be on to something, even if I don't agree with the tactic.
EDIT: to clarify, they were trying to put a ballot initiative to add abortion as a right to the Missouri constitution
I don’t know if this post was intended to be a reply to me or not, since I wasn’t talking about Biden at all
To clarify, you said
. In this case, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to focus in on November and the few months following it.
I agree, which is why I said when we focus on November, what's likely winning the most votes is a candidate that voters agree with.
Which kind of comes full circle to what I was talking about. If we're focusing on the best path to beating trump, Biden needs to start listening to voters.
And all indications show that's not going to happen.
Biden saying people need to compromise their morals and vote for him anyways because Trump is worse, would work a hell of a lot better if Biden was willing to compromise with voters too.
It's not even a good short term plan for Biden to act like he currently is. But it's the presented option and stress makes people only avoid short term negatives, it hampers their ability to plan and evaluate better options.
So our stressed out monkey brains take the presented option that's "lesser of two evils" and commits to it instead of taking a second to breathe and evaluate. Because of that, when people try to talk about options, some people reflexively assume that there's two choices, and everyone has to want one or the other. The amount of times I've been accused of being a trump supporter for saying Biden could do better is insane. And it's the result of the same high stress thinking that republican voters have been stuck in for decades.
And that's not a comment on anyone's intelligence. This is how millions of years of evolution has wired us, it's 100% natural and expected to fall.into that feedback loop. It's just being exploited so that whatever happens, the wealthy stay wealthy.
I feel like I mention this a lot, but a few years ago one of the conservative billionaires on WB's board openly said he was going to make CNN more like faux news. And I just can't help but think it's not just correlation, it's the ruling class's strategy working.
I love how soggy pieces of bread like yourself base your actions around what magats will do.
There is no good outcome even in the cards. If he goes to jail it will feed into his base's persecution complex. If he gets off easy, nothing's more insufferable than an unpunished malignant narcissist. If he gets a huge fine, he will not pay.
let them feed their persecution complex. we can lock them up, too if they get unruly.
If he goes to jail it will feed into his base’s persecution complex.
If he doesn't go to jail then they will probably say that he isn't really a convicted felon because he wasn't a convict at any point because it doesn't matter what happens, they will twist it into a persecution complex somehow.
I really wish people would stop worrying about actually holding shitheads accountable.
I'm not "worried" so much as not excited about dealing with it.
they will probably say that he isn't really a convicted felon because he wasn't a convict
That doesn't make sense. A convict is just that: someone convicted of a crime, it doesn't depend on jail-time served. Donald Trump is guilty of dozens of felonies for election finance violations related to illegal cover-up payments. So yeah, I totally expect them to say that...
There is no good outcome even in the cards
Gotta think long term.
The "good outcome" is no jail sentence until after the election (or just probation). trump loses the election, and then is found guilty on any other case and then goes to jail for that because he's no longer a "first time offender".
The worst outcome is sentenced to prison before the election, but reporting is delayed till after the election and then Trump wins.
If that happens, he's never giving up power and he won't wait till the next election to pull some more stupid shit.
It's hilarious that you guys think he's more likely to win if he's sentenced to jail.
This makes no sense at all.
You seem to think he'll gain votes from this guilty verdict when everything points to the opposite.
You guys give magats so much more credit than they deserve these people are cowards to their cores.
I think a bunch of ignorant folk view this conman as their hero and the prosecution of law he broke a political witch hunt by the left.
Which the right only says because they are itching to start their political hunt.
I think there’s a sharply increased chance of political violence and domestic terrorism if he gets imprisoned before the election.
Gotta think long term.
The problem with this approach is it literally is the weaponization of justice that the right loves to screech about. Timing Trump's trials or sentences to hurt him the most politically is twisting justice to our own ends, even if done in a theoretically altruistic manner. True it might lead to the best outcome for the country, but is that the risk we want to take- that if Trump does win, he won't see any punishment for his crimes at all?
On the other hand, I recognize this is the exact moral quandary that the right loves pushing non-conservatives into, and while we're arguing amongst ourselves about the best way to unfuck this pretzel they're busy burning it all to the ground. So I wouldn't say you're wrong necessarily, just that it's an uncomfortable path to tread.
Timing Trump’s trials or sentences to hurt him the most politically is twisting justice to our own ends, even if done in a theoretically altruistic manner
I was saying that's the most likely he lands in prison where he belongs....
Not that multiple states should collude to stall cases...
I mean, the states have been trying to get these moving for years. How would anyone rational accuse Dems of "timing" things?
If you're worrying about what republicans will say, don't. It doesn't matter what happens, republicans are going to say some stupid shit. Stop worrying about what they'll complain about, if they don't have anything to complain about, they'll invent something. And their voters can't tell the difference anyways.
I'm just tired of predicting what will happen long term, or the most likely path to a possible result, and having people act like I want that result or am trying to make it happen.
It's the same logic that got medicine women burnt as witches centuries ago. Move past it.
Whether the person making a prediction wants it to come true or not doesn't matter. What's important is how likely the prediction comes true
One wild card to this is the pre-sentencing probation hearing. It happened on Monday, and the only thing we've heard about it was that Trump was "polite, respectful, and accomodating". Well, he also told the officers on the other end of the call to "be safe", whatever that means.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/politics/trump-probation-office-interview-hush-money/index.html
Trump got to do the interview remotely, and also got to have his lawyer present, both of which are accommodations that the standard NYC felon doesn't get. (The probation office also had multiple people on the call, too, which is also unusual). His lawyers probably explained to him that if he pissed these people off, they would recommend prison time and the judge would give that a lot of weight. So for once in his life, he had to be respectful to someone who he didn't know and is worth a fraction of what Trump thinks he's worth. Bonus points if they found an immigrant from one of the countries he doesn't like to ask him all those embarrassing questions.
Come to think if it, why would he tell the probation officers to "be safe"? Is he anticipating they might be in danger, for some strange reason?
Come to think if it, why would he tell the probation officers to "be safe"? Is he anticipating they might be in danger, for some strange reason?
If this wasn't trump, I'd say this is one of those things you say to people. Drive safe, safe flight, be safe out there, etc.
Right, you might say that if you knew the person, and knew they traveled to get to you. But would you exchange those pleasantries with someone you just met, over a court-mandated video call?
Trump is excellent at this, saying innocuous things that are really signaling phrases to his people that the rest of us aren't in on. We didn't really know what "Stand back and stand by" meant at the time, but we do now.
You are generally right, but "Stand back and stand by" was pretty fucking blatant, and nobody who wasn't searching for a reason it wasn't an issue 'misunderstood' the message.
They run articles like these monthly at this point an I think it's just the media doing two things. One they're rage baiting for clicks just by using Trumps name. And Two, they're pretending America is a place where the guilty go to jail even when they're rich.
I wish the press wasn't so afraid to write Election Interference in their headline. That is what that case was about, that is what made it a felony. Calling it the "Hush Money" trial is trying to "both sides" his coverage.
Except his base has bought the line of thinking that a candidate is "allowed" to interfere in their own election, because he's trying to win. They are OK with him doing anything, including committing crimes, as long as he wins.
The important part is the fraud. He is a liar, who illegally tried to hide his illegal hush money payments in an attempt to illegally interfere with the election process.
Agreed with what you are saying, but my point was that the media as a whole has to stop writing headlines/articles like his base is going to:
- read them
- not call it "fake news" anyways
The media's constant crusade to "both sides" every story is a disservice to the facts, and down plays and white washes the facts for everyone. Calling it just a "hush money" trial is a way to downplay the fact that it was actually Trump's way to hide a damaging story when he was running for office. And the crime was the way he hid the payment so that it wouldn't look like it was being done on behalf of his campaign, while breaking Federal tax laws making Cohen's reimbursement look like income. It was also a crime allowing the National Enquirer to pay to catch-and-kill stories for the campaign as illegal campaign contributions (as they were above legal contribution limits, and were unreported).
So yes it was fraud, and it was fraud against the American people, in the form of voter manipulation, and tax evasion.
My Magic 8 Ball says : Doubtful
Mine says definitely
If the rule applied to outcomes, people would simply write headlines that negate any they so choose.
Also, yes. It's a hypothetical, not based on fact; therefore, any answer is fine, and can also be dismissed without facts. It is a fun game where the news is now speculation instead of reporting on what happened in the past. It's almost like we are wasting our time.
Justice Merchan told Donald Trump to his face in his contempt hearing:
"you're a former president and a current candidate, I really don't want put you in jail"
He's not going to sentence him to a day behind bars and anyone who thinks he will is delusional, Justice Merchan already stated his intent and it's in the public record.
Intent isn't the same as what will happen, the law does prescribe what he must do, and if that violates his intent, so be it.
But it does mean he'll presumably be on the lenient side of what he's allowed to do, which means it's very unlikely Trump's going to jail as a result of this conviction. Unless he ends up with a negative recommendation from the probation officer, which seems unlikely from what has been said publicly. But I wouldn't say "absolutely not" yet.
Narrator: He won't.
He has too much money to go to prison in my opinion.
That's not a thing.
I mean, have you seen the US justice system? It definitely appears to be a thing.
Imposing a harsh punishment in this situation, even if warranted, would not be seen as unbiased. The fallout would be intense. I'd be most concerned about the perception of those folks who don't really pay attention to politics. Will they refuse to vote for someone who's been to jail on a felony, or will it offend their sense of fair play and make them vote for "the underdog"? The sentence, whatever it is, has to be a 4D-chess move by the judge.
I really don't think it'll be jail time, but I'd love for it to be and more importantly I'd love for the election to bear out that choice.
No.
Guarantee hunter's sentence will be based.on the outcome of the orange turds. It's simple extortion at this point.
'Would be a real shame if your son got 25 years, joe. Just saying. Judge's prerogative and all that, y'know?'