Don't trust polls.
There's always an element of society who pretend they don't know who they're voting for yet. They're voting for bad things, they know they're bad, and they are embarrassed to tell pollsters.
Vote.
this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2024
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politics
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Not to mention the incredibly questionable ways of gathering data.
Like calling people in the day, on their PHONES, asking how they might consider voting. Like MF, I'm working in the day and I'm not picking up a random phone call to tell you about my political alignment.
Like calling people in the day
I had a pollster call me at 10pm.
Yeah, I don't know if it's still even possible to do an accurate poll these days, what with how hard it is to get accurate representation of the following groups: people who ignore all unrecognised calls, people who hang up as soon as they can tell it's a mass call rather than something for them specifically, and people who don't want others to have accurate information. It's even difficult to accurately measure the size of each of those groups, let alone figure out what they think.
Don’t trust polls.
High quality pollings (Gallup, Ipsos, various university polling groups) are consistently reliable within the margin of error. There's no point in being afraid or dismissive of them.
There’s always an element of society who pretend they don’t know who they’re voting for yet. They’re voting for bad things
There are plenty of people who are disinterested or uninformed. They aren't naturally malicious simply because they don't religiously follow political news. Lots of them don't even know if they're going to vote until early voting starts, and even then only vote as part of their family or social group rather than because they have an emotional attachment to one of the parties.
The regional nature of voting tends to mean that if you're too shy to express your views, you aren't in the majority anyway. Its the guy who answers the phone in a MAGA hat and shouts "Hell yeah I'm voting fer Trump!" that you have to worry about, not the one who is too shy to whisper support for RFK Jr down the line.
don't trust polls.
This isn't telling you to not be confident or to be scared, this is telling you to not assume victory is assured. Vote regardless of polling. Polling can be accurate or not. If the polling is accurate, and a majority would vote for A, but A is so far ahead of B that A-voters sit out the race, B can still win if enough voters choose to stay home.
this is telling you to not assume victory is assured
Who looks at a 50/48 polling split and thinks victory is assured? That's still within the margin of error and it doesn't even include battleground swings.
But if it was 60/40? Yeah, I'd feel pretty assured. You'd be a fool not to.
If the polling is accurate, and a majority would vote for A, but A is so far ahead of B that A-voters sit out the race
People keep talking about this like it ever actually happens? Name one candidate that lost an election because the polling was too favorable.
DJ Trump comin' in your ears
And JD Vance in your couch.
First thing I thought when seeing this. Looks like a poster for a gig and the setlist. Someone needs to put an ai to it and make the most garbage of songs out of those titles 😆
I bet Replace Bureaucracy is a banger
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This is a part of the plan to delegitimize and undermine any election result that doesn't go their way. "The election results are fake. We've been telling you for months that the polls are crooked so the election must have been crooked."
“It’s not over on Election Day. It’s over on Inauguration Day,” (Trump campaign manager) LaCivita told Politico’s Jonathan Martin during a Thursday interview at the RNC.
So what I'm not understanding, is what happens when they aren't elected and they remain unable to do basic math.
They seem to really putting all their eggs into the basket of "numbers are fake, do our bidding" but somehow fail to realize without the numbers they won't have support?
Like they really think they have enough weird dudes with too many guns to out gun and out fight the military that is currently under Biden's control?
Also, have they accounted for the fact that the number of armed crazies gets even smaller when the crazies realize they don't get paid for fighting?
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This guy is sofa king annoying.
Dear MAGAs Please believe your vice Führer. You will win. No need to go vote.
I like how the Republican playbook is "grow a beard if you want to look manly" and it just makes them look shlubby more than anything. Vance and Cruz are prime examples.
This guy would look baby faced if he shaved. I have the same problem where if I shave I look 10 years younger than I am.
I'm not claming this guy (or myself) are the pinnacle of attractiveness by any stretch of the imagination. Just saying what I know from a similar genetic background and age.
Such performative masculinity, you can never be the underdog or have nuance.
Harris is up by a point or two nationally, and that's not necessarily enough to win. Battleground states are all too close to call. The RCP electoral map is still giving Trump the win granted they tend to be R-biased in their poll aggregation but that is the path to claiming Trump is in the lead.
Keep on denying everything. Love to see it.
Sadly this led to January 6th as the MAGAt “couldn’t believe” that Trump lost. I’d like people to start accepting reality ASAP, ideally, before our next insurrection election.
It's beautifully counter productive because if they convince their base it'll be a cake walk GOP turnout will dip.
Keep denying it JD!
all hail the Indianan edge lord! lol what a rube
They're already laying the groundwork for claiming the election was stolen
They've been doing that for years
Trump: See, the polls were wrong! Particularly in the places where my supporters controled the counting process AND refuse to release the final count! Oh, you got those electoral votes thrown out? Too bad the consitution gives the presidency to Republicans if no one reaches 270 electoral votes (one state, one vote)
The Harris Walz campaign needs to call them lists in public. Constantly. I don't see how there isn't intent and capacity here.
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He always looks so confused in his photos.
Then I guess we better get more blue voters out to vote. Thanks JD.
Fake announcement !
You done messed up JD Vance
He's going full Baghdad Bob. You never go full Baghdad Bob.
It's only fake news when it goes against their agenda. Otherwise, it's bigly accurate.
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