this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2023
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Like Putin, Viktor Orbán is learning he can act with impunity: the cash keeps flowing | Katalin Cseh (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 10 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
18 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

The EU’s capitulation to the Hungarian PM’s blackmail is a grave mistake. He seeks to reshape the bloc in his image

The decision by European leaders to open formal EU membership negotiations with Ukraine is historic – it offers hope to a people who are courageously fighting Russian aggression and sacrificing their lives for a European future. The agreement marks a historic new chapter for the EU. But legally, it required the unanimity of all 27 leaders, and it only became possible because Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán – who had threatened to block the opening of talks with Ukraine – left the room, in effect abstaining rather than wielding his veto.

The fact that 26 EU leaders, including Orbán’s supposed allies, signed up despite his opposition underscores the importance of this historic step. Yet it is tainted by the questionable means through which the agreement was achieved.

In a highly dubious deal that emerged in the run-up to the summit, the European Commission had unblocked €10.2bn, a third of an overall sum for Hungary frozen as punishment for Orbán’s dismantling of the rule of law. The Hungarian government made token reforms to restore judicial independence, but they fall far short of what is needed.

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[–] [email protected] 29 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (2 children)

It's almost as if the UK made a gigantic mistake by exiting itself from the EU.

Not that British influence could unfuck Hungarian politics, but it would have at least given them a larger degree of influence in the outcome.

Setting aside the legal issues around pushing Hungary out of the EU, I don't really understand the political value of them being allowed to remain - except maybe that forcing them out would upset Poland.

At least with Turkey and NATO, I understand the geostrategic importance e.g. Montreux Convention, forward operating bases, etc.

This isn't me saying there isn't a valid, or even vital, rationale for needing to keep Hungary in the EU, just me asking for someone knowledgeable to provide me with one.

To be extra clear, I'm not asking for answers on the legal path, or lack therefof, to involuntarily remove an EU member state, just the political rationale for NOT wanting Hungary kicked out, or suspended

[–] [email protected] 5 points 10 months ago (1 children)

AFAIK there is no mechanism to kick anyone out, they can only leave.
And not following your own rules kind of sets the stage for the whole to tear itself apart.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (4 children)

Pretty sure this could be solved in a similar way to handling versions of a duplicate computer file, name the old EU file as EUv1, copy contents of v1 to a new EU file, make amendments to EUv2 using ctrl+f to delete mentions of Hungary (or preferably ctrl+r to change Hungary to UK, maybe rename the EUv2 file to SovereingtyUnionV1 to appease the leave voters), then everyone just leaves EUv1.

The rules mean they can't force Hungary out, but Hungary can't stop everyone else leaving and forming a better club.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Of the all the responses that don't even really attempt to answer my actual question (political rationale for wanting Hungary to remain), this is by far, my favorite.

B- work, but grading on this post's curve bumps it up to A+.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 10 months ago

Rofl... Fine we'll make our own EU with blackjack and hookers.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 10 months ago

With blackjack and hookers! Oh wait, we already have that... With more blackjack and hookers!

[–] [email protected] -2 points 10 months ago (2 children)

Geopolitics doesn't work that way.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Crtl+a, Del

[–] [email protected] 0 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Sure it does - it's exactly what happened with the League of Nations -> UN.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Uh...not quite. You skipped the step where they hit sudo rm -rf /* on the drive that, amongst other critical items, also contained the world_order.txt config file.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 10 months ago (2 children)

I'd say the thought is that if Hungary falls out of the EU it will eventually become a vassal state to Putin. This would create a horrid mess greater than keeping it in the EU and trying to coax the Hungarian government more towards European values.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 children)

I don't buy that argument, at all.

Being a vassal of Putin would require Hungary"s standard of living to drop so dramatically, that even Orban couldn't get reelected.

And, if their standard of living did manage to drop that much while retaining Orban, there'd be even less reason to want to keep them within the EU.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 children)

The standard of living in Hungary has been constantly declining since orbán has been in power. His voter base is still going strong nonetheless, especially among the poorest. These people have no future, but also no present either - they'll vote for the name they hear the most often, or the one their employer tells them to. They being mostly jobless, that employer being the village mayor via the public works programme, and usually a puppet of orbán as well. Checkmate, liberal democracy.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

There's a difference between a consistent gradual decline, and rapidly plummeting to a Belarusian standard of living - which would be a likely prerequisite for even the chance that a weakened Hungary could ever become a vassal state of Putin's Russia.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 10 months ago

Hungary under Orban is already vassal state to Putin, though not fully. Well, he has his own "european values", putin type of values. He wants changes in EU, so for EU that's either take compromise route or shut them up route. He won't stop.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 10 months ago (1 children)

It's nothing new in a neoliberal world. It's up to the individual and the capital want to grow at any cost.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 10 months ago

As much as I hate neoliberalism, I don't think that's the cause of this particular EU bureaucratic clusterfuck.

Did you even read the article...? The cash flow being referred to is the distribution of collective EU funds to member states...not some individualistic endeavor, or a business venture with privatized profits and socialized losses.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 10 months ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:

But legally, it required the unanimity of all 27 leaders, and it only became possible because Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán – who had threatened to block the opening of talks with Ukraine – left the room, in effect abstaining rather than wielding his veto.

In a highly dubious deal that emerged in the run-up to the summit, the European Commission had unblocked €10.2bn, a third of an overall sum for Hungary frozen as punishment for Orbán’s dismantling of the rule of law.

While Ukraine’s EU accession will be a lengthy process and presents immense challenges, these pale in comparison with the strategic importance of a European nation resisting falling under the control of Vladimir Putin.

But instead of coupling their decision on Ukraine with a firm, commonsense political strategy towards Hungary, European leaders have managed to send a mixed and disconcerting message that emboldens Orbán’s bullying.

The timing of the EU’s concession to Orbán is particularly disastrous, coinciding with Hungary’s “sovereignty protection bill” – a shockingly oppressive piece of legislation threatening journalists and civil society organisations with jail if they participate in international funding programmes.

Orbán’s attempt to thwart Ukraine is also part of a domestic political calculation: it’s about stoking hate against foreigners and minorities to fire up his base before elections.

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