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Do you guys think this matters to his voters/supporters?
Some undecideds, sure. It only takes ten thousand voters in a couple swing states to change the outcome.
I mean, that could have been the difference in the 2016 election.
Remember when Clinton lost the election because the FBI didn't find anything on her assistant's laptop?
I mean she could have spent a weekend in Michigan. That was an unforced error.
She could have addressed her relationship with Goldman Sachs, and all the other banks that fucked over the entirety of the American people during the housing crisis that she earned millions upon millions giving "speeches" to.
She could have made an olive branch to the progressive caucus.
She could have not said "Sit down and shut up" to BLM activists.
There are a lot of things she could have done.
She could have Pokemon gone to Michigan
Amazing 👏
Or, like, hear me out, the Democrats could have not nominated her and nominated someone who isn't strongly disliked by both sides.
Should've Been Bernie
She could also not have stolen the fucking nomination from Sanders
I think she would've won regardless of everything else, but it would've been closer. Really the mistake from the primaries is that she didn't really try to incorporate any of Bernie's ideas into her platform, or even work with him at all. She treated him as an opponent and obstacle, not as a rival and peer.
This is where Biden was successful however -- he didn't dismiss Bernie nor his platform ideas. He did incorporate some into presidency, most obviously the climate change policies and student debt forgiveness where possible.
And where I sincerely believe this difference came down to -- Biden was friendly to Bernie in the Senate and made an effort to be friendly colleagues, if not work friends. Clinton didn't. It shows the power of cooperation allying together with progressives, instead of allying together with "moderate" Republicans.
Its fine though. The Supreme Court said they can rig their own primaries. /s
That's all true, but she still would have won without the dramatic search of Huma Abadeen's laptop.
Voters decided against her for mishandling classified documents, right? So these same voters, who think things through with consistency and integrity, will decide against someone who stole boxes of documents and got CIA agents killed selling state secrets to Russia, right?
It blows my mind that anyone can still be undecided in 2024.
Lot of people don’t pay any attention to politics. Yes, even in this climate.
Everyone talks about his base as an unmoving monolith. But to get elected, he needs more than his base. He needs the fence sitters. Many of these people may be very ill informed about all the corruption in his original administration and his business dealings. This result will make a big difference to them because it's simple to understand. He's a convicted felon.
34 times no less.
This. There's a lot of components to his base.
This is not a good outcome for his campaign.
To many of them, no. To some who would have voted for him, maybe yes.
There's some evidence to suggest he'll lose significant support: https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/48654-would-donald-trump-conviction-move-his-voters-evidence-from-past-present-bill-clinton-polls
But hard to know for sure.
I'm making a called shot of a drop into the 40's for July's polling.
He wont' drop below 25%, ever. That's his core. They may never support another candidate again.
However, dropping to high 30's low 40's only puts Trump back to par with Biden. Hardly a W, but at lease Biden would be back in the running.
Don't do that. Don't give me hope.
I mean it in a "There are still people who think gamestop is going to be a billion dollar stock" manner.
See: https://lemmy.world/c/gamestopstock
Cult/ Cargo cult level "They will never support another candidate again" is what I mean. They'll write him in. They'll have wild conspiracy theories. Not need to push. It will happen it on its own.
I would guess its around 25-30% of Republican voters. Its the conspiracy theory mind-set cutting backwards against those that seed it. There is no undoing this.
If Donald could please just die and they continue writing in his name for all future votes that would be great. They are the most ignorant and racist people within a party wholly committed to cultivating ignorant and racist voters.
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I suspect some people will mental gymnastics themselves into thinking this isn't a serious crime, and stipulating an abstract 'serious crime' yields more extreme results than we'll see as a result of this verdict.
But a few percentage point swing in a few key states is enough to ensure a Biden victory, so it may be enough.
The fact of the matter is for a lot of white Americans it's either support the republican nominee or those scary minorities will take over. To them, a white criminal is preferable to what they see as guliable saps at best or race traitors at worst.
I think "all 34 counts" is more meaningful than 33 out 34 or anything less.
Any truly room temperature IQ folks out there can maybe see the light. Maybe.
Or they see it as "See? The courts are obviously corrupted. Not even one count was innocent? There's no way he committed THAT much crime."
Anecdotal… we drove through rural Ohio a few weeks ago. In several hours of travel we only saw ONE trump sign. The same place in 2016 or 2020 would have been full of them. Regardless of the impact of this, the enthusiasm is dead. There might be “maga guys” on Twitter but they’re largely disengaged in real life.
If you sneak into their safe spaces online you can definitely tell they are unmotivated compared to 4-8 years ago.
They liked Trump because he bullied others publicly. They don't want to side with the guy currently getting bullied, goes against their survival instinct.
I was just in South Arkansas for a few days, and only saw one flag, and no bumper stickers for trump
My gut feeling is there's nothing in this world that will sway his core supporters. Those rabid mouth-breathing dumbass kool-aid drinking dipshits would disown their own children if they thought one of them voted for a democrat.
However, I think it could sway a lot of swing voters away from Trump. In American elections for POTUS, swing voters are extremely important.
Unfortunately, Biden is fucking up so bad on foreign policy (Gaza) that will lose Biden a lot of swing voters, too. Still anybody's race is my guess.
This is just all my gut. It's hard to trust polls anymore.
Swing voters either dgaf about Gaza or are in favor of what Israel is doing. Gaza hurts Biden with his base.
Anyone who gives a shit about Gaza probably should try to ensure the country doesn't elect a Muslim Ban guy who wants to accelerate the genocide and deport anyone protesting it.
Fuck off to Nick Fuentes then.
FYI: Those leftists are right wing trolls under a false flag, exactly like those “Biden takes 100% blame for Israel’s every action” guys. They come from /pol and Telegram.
1 in 6 say it could change their mind https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/one-in-six-voters-say-trump-verdict-could-change-their-minds-ahead-of-tight-election-poll-finds/ar-BB1nl6y2
This matters to intelligent, educated, and critically-thinking people. So, no, it doesn’t matter to his sycophants.
Doubt it, but I don't care. They are basically a cult at this point, no rational thought.
This matters to everyone else. And it could keep him from being president again.
It emboldens his supporters because they believe the "deep state", "witch hunt", "Democrats paid off the jury" etc according to social media now.
I could see Biden dropping out of the debate also saying "I don't debate felons".
I doubt Biden would use this as an excuse to drop out of the debate. His campaign thinks the debate will help him more than Trump, and they’re probably right. Outside of his diehard supporters and people keeping up with politics, most voters haven’t heard Trump speak at length since the end of his presidency. The debate is an opportunity to remind them how fucking weird he is.
Maybe his core supporters, but past elections have shown that he can't win the popular vote. He is dependent on swing states where there are more people on the fence, and this might be enough.
I think a lot of his supporters are mostly burnt out on him. Even the hardliners are really just in this for the Wrestlemania storyline quality and this guy isn't entertaining anymore, he just has legal bullshit around him, he says the same catchphrases all the time, he's looking older and more haggard than we've ever seen, and conservatives are super fixated on superficial appearances.
I don't think we're "safe" by any means, but I think a lot of people are going to fall off and it might make a large difference.