this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2024
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Idk, when you look at the entire picture, does Trump not have the far easier path to 270 this year? He only has to win 2 states (PA & GA) and that’s it, he wins. Kamala has to win at the minimum 3, and if she loses PA, it becomes even harder for her. Trump could just spend all of his money campaigning in those 2 states and get back in the White House. Yet these odds seem to disagree with me.

Am I trippin?

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 2 months ago (1 children)

37% of Americans can't afford to pay a $400 bill without taking on further debt, and that means 37% of Americans can't afford to miss a day of work to vote.

It really could go either way.

[–] [email protected] 50 points 2 months ago (13 children)

It's such a strange concept that it isn't a national holiday to enable everyone to vote.

[–] [email protected] 37 points 2 months ago (2 children)

It’s not strange; they don’t want the poorest and lower class people to be able to vote.

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[–] [email protected] 26 points 2 months ago

But then Black people might vote. America still hasn't forgiven Black people for existing.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 2 months ago

If the goal was to have everyone vote, it wouldn’t be Tuesday and everyone would automatically be registered with mail-in being an option.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 months ago (3 children)

Or at least a legal requirement for employers to allow time off during employees shifts to vote.

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

In France it's always on a Sunday, because guess what: most people don't work on Sunday

Also if you do work on Sunday your boss is legally bound to allow you to go vote because of course we do, it's a democracy ffs

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

Sadly, it's not strange at all. We're a capitalist country. This is what our votes support every two years.

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[–] [email protected] 26 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

I think Kamala has much better odds than Biden did this time around. The assassination attempt on Trump was crazy and solidified his supporters.

I think it's a closer race than either side thinks

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 23 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Normally by smoking something jazzy or by ingesting rave-grade candy

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 2 months ago (1 children)

To "win?" No - not really.

But I don't think that matters much.

Honestly, I think that Trump and the overt fascists and plutocrats who are backing him fully intend to get him into office or destroy the country trying - that if he doesn't win legitimately, he'll "win" through fraud, or through the machinations of the brazenly corrupt and compromised supreme court, or through violent revolution.

His backers - the Heritage Foundation and the rest of the fascists and Musk and Thiel and the rest of the plutocrats and so on - don't just want to try to get him into office - they want to destroy American liberty and democracy. It's not even so much about him specifically - he's just the right combination of charismatic and shallow that they see him as their opportunity to impose the autocracy they want. And I don't think they're going to let anything stand in their way. So whether or not he actually wins the election isn't even really relevant, other than to the degree that that will determine what other strategies they might have to, and will, implement.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago (2 children)

He wasn't even able to do that when he had the full power of the presidency at his disposal. The reality is that he has a lot of grandiose plans that far exceed his competence.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 months ago

While he had fake electors last time, they weren't as widespread as they've become over the last 4 years. He also didn't have the coordination of the Heritage Foundation either like he does now. He also didn't have a House of Representatives willing to steal the election last time.

He has a lot going for his machinations this time.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

He doesn't need to do it this time - he has a veritable army of fascists, a brazenly corrupt and compromised supreme court and a squad of billionaire plutocrats to do it all on his behalf, and not coincidentally they have a detailed blueprint in Project 2025 that tells them exactly what to do, step by step, to transform the US into a christofascist/plutocratic autocracy.

All Trump has to do this time around is just carry on being Trump, while all those other people do all the dirty work.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

He had most of those things last time too, plus the power of office.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Looking from half-way around the world, Trump wining seemed very likely until Kamala became the candidate. And now no result seems more likely than the other.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

Same, it feels like there's no way trump wins again now.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I think/hope the red states become more purple this go around. Might even flip a few small ones by the time November comes 🤞

[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I saw the rumor that Trump’s internal polling showed him below 50% in Ohio, if true, that would be huge for Harris

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago

My corner of TN is very red. I noticed the other day, whereas in 2020 the trump signs were all over, none are out now. Don’t see the shirts. And I’ve found a lot of blue friends here in the last year.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago (16 children)

Anyone else feel like it's weird how many are using the last name for Trump but the first name for Harris? What's the deal with that?

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago (4 children)

They always do that with women for some reason. It made sense for Hillary, since her husband was already President Clinton. It doesn't make any sense for Harris

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 months ago

Kamala is a cooler name

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Kamala just rolls off the keyboard better

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 months ago

That assumes that the rest of the states shake out as expected. NC and Ohio have been polling a lot closer than expected. Winning one of those would offset a loss in PA or GA.

There's a reason why we still hold the actual election, and don't base the winner just on polls.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 months ago
[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago

Polymarket currently has Harris ahead at 52-45 plus minor candidates. Yeah I think that favors her too much. Trump has been off the rails (I mean more than usual) lately but he could get it together. Also, Harris is a blank slate upon whom many place unfounded hopes.

The TV debates will probably be more significant than usual this year. IDK who they will favor. We shall see.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago
[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I think the odds at the moment still favor Trump but Harris has run a solid campaign so far. We're still in "it's anyone's game" territory but Trump is constantly losing ground.

A poll recently showed that more Americans trust Harris with the economy and that's a really bad sign for Trump.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 months ago (2 children)

A majority of oddsmakers are favoring Harris rn

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I want Harris if for nothing else than to see Trump absolutely implode. :)

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

You make it sound like T winning PA would be easy

I could just as easily say H winning Texas would put it in the bag for her

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago (3 children)

PA is a toss up, Texas isnt

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